Patterns of Conflict Emergence

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PaCE is an ERC-funded project (2022-26) that aims to uncover recurring temporal sequences in the run-up to war.

The idea that history may repeat itself is old. But are there really recurring patterns in the escalation and emergence of wars? Just as DNA sequencing has been critical to medical diagnoses, PaCE aims to diagnose international politics by uncovering the relevant patterns in the area of conflict.
Recent advances overcoming methodological and data barriers present an opportunity to identify these recurrences empirically and to examine whether these patterns can be classified to improve forecasts and inform theories of conflict.

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